MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24d11e436a09cab0bcbb27b8f37c7c1c09f25434d49277d8088e6ee87082e1f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 67c | 562$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 76c | 554.02$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.35 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 28c | 475.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 31c | 399$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.68 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 32c | 237$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 68c | 235.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 33c | 189.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 35c | 157.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Over | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 68c | 145.59$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 13c | 94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 35c | 60.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York YankeesSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.