MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26628868998480434abef32bae9d9b1c1c34a078a3fadcdc390d494a0ed15a14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 42c | 10,903$4,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,541.13 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…fda2backed No | 60c | 6,299$3,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 58c | 4,561$2,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.6 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 58c | 2,567$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.06 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 42c | 2,154$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.35 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 40c | 1,447$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.31 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 35c | 788.38$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 43c | 777.48$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.31 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed No | 57c | 672.22$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.94 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 39c | 600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 57c | 517.24$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.41 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed No | 78c | 299.76$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 298$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 41c | 228$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked No | 57c | 213.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked No | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 39c | 61.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 45c | 53.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 45c | 49.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 55c | 49.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 26c | 48.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed No | 55c | 47.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 58c | 27.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked No | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed No | 55c | 20.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankeesthis page
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York YankeesSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.