MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x250548a682675a1021b6088bcc563bfc52e99744450d353fee02e55b15e10936
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 71c | 1,525$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.94 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 1,210$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 353.24$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 41c | 322.76$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 242$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 54c | 199.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Athletics | 38c | 167.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 121.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 28c | 102.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 99.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Athletics | 31c | 96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 58c | 89.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Athletics | 44c | 54.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Athletics | 37c | 45.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 42.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Athletics | 57c | 42.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 39.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Athletics | 51c | 38.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 36.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 31.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Minnesota Twins | 67c | 30.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 26.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Athletics | 58c | 18.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.