Us Politics · resolved market
TikTok banned in the US by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x250e109b00760ba0b569e11d90c813a7b45ad36e56e1c73ceed9430d4688b1a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $284,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $252,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 5c | 59,669$3,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,237.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…5006backed Yes | 4c | 6,420$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…00afbacked Yes | 9c | 5,258$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,889$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.29 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…9755backed Yes | 6c | 4,418$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 3c | 3,314$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…3737backed Yes | 6c | 3,114$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 2,592$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb3…f8dfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,519$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 6c | 2,234$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 1,948$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…d168backed Yes | 3c | 1,838$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…ebb1backed Yes | 5c | 1,818$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…56e8backed Yes | 7c | 1,267$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…2c77backed Yes | 4c | 1,217$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,144$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 3c | 1,065$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8b…a0c2backed Yes | 4c | 789.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 4c | 731.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 698.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b41…7fcabacked Yes | 4c | 692.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…abe5backed Yes | 5c | 632.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +661.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…d332backed Yes | 3c | 600.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…ac3fbacked Yes | 5c | 569.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5259…7770backed Yes | 3c | 551.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de9…dde4backed Yes | 6c | 375.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…6060backed Yes | 6c | 372.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c5…46e1backed Yes | 6c | 317.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…8b7cbacked Yes | 6c | 296.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…d32ebacked Yes | 4c | 253.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6600backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12a…676cbacked Yes | 6c | 233.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…094cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…ed26backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba2…f8afbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…8e46backed Yes | 6c | 169.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.