Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25246c4516c52e7765a714bcbf4e4038e573561c648019d1a1332b478580a7e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,867 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes | 0c | 21,856$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 1c | 14,958$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 5c | 14,297$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.93 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 1c | 2,905$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 1c | 2,303$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,978$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 11c | 1,804$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…d8cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,431$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,174$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.02 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 4c | 1,063$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 1,028$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…4dbfbacked Yes | 4c | 996.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 50c | 628.39$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.91 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 540.3$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.65 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 432.16$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.26 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 404.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 76c | 370.52$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 45c | 324$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.94 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 323.49$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 78c | 306.49$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 66c | 299.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 79c | 290.96$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 54c | 276.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.61 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…7badbacked Yes | 33c | 263.01$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 76c | 250.11$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 231.82$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.28 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 39c | 229.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed Yes | 49c | 215.28$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 34c | 211.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.32 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.38 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 64c | 199.02$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 64c | 198.68$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 40c | 195.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 36c | 191.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.48 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 187.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 7c | 179.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 34c | 174.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.2 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 46c | 170.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 71c | 165.75$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.68 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…f440backed Yes | 59c | 164.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e3…51a3backed Yes | 60c | 159.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 155.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.59 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 52c | 153.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 29c | 144.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 75c | 133.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 129.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 128$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed Yes | 57c | 127.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 41c | 120.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 33c | 120.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf287…8b2cbacked Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 70c | 117.54$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 110.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed Yes | 73c | 110$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 45c | 109$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed No | 53c | 104$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 53c | 103.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 103$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 53c | 102.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 43c | 100.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed Yes | 25c | 99.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 97.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 68c | 97.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 31c | 93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 32c | 92.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 89.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 60c | 89.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 85.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 34c | 83.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 22c | 83.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 78c | 80.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 58c | 79.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 49c | 73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce7…37c0backed Yes | 62c | 71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…10a5backed Yes | 72c | 69.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…0dedbacked Yes | 70c | 62.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…2380backed Yes | 41c | 62.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 25c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 43c | 54.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…5b8bbacked Yes | 53c | 54.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 66c | 53.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 77c | 48.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…8157backed No | 60c | 47.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 74c | 46.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 27c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6db…810ebacked Yes | 34c | 45.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.