Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4935c91c26bce39cffad10743229ee099a3e95c3c3d2773f7c3b622a56f342d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,771 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 1c | 5,767$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 63c | 2,182$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.23 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 32c | 782.13$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.66 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 25c | 570.14$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.62 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 504.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 457.75$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.69 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 41c | 375.58$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.01 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 365.35$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 348.05$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 36c | 252.26$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.47 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2152…c47ebacked No | 67c | 249.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 62c | 229.27$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 30c | 218.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.17 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…7badbacked Yes | 47c | 217$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 47c | 210.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.55 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 36c | 200.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.91 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 58c | 189.54$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 43c | 185.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.33 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 175.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.37 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 44c | 161.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 148.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e3…51a3backed Yes | 50c | 148$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 64c | 146.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 34c | 130$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 63c | 130$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 32c | 124.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 29c | 124.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 71c | 124.75$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 124.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 37c | 123.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 115.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 37c | 103.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 40c | 103$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 94.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 55c | 93.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 44c | 92.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…4774backed Yes | 39c | 86.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 68c | 86.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 86.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…9865backed Yes | 35c | 85.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 59c | 83.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 78.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 78.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 25c | 78.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 74.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 48c | 68.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 35c | 66.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 39c | 61.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…a221backed No | 62c | 58.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 40c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 28c | 56.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a23…8da7backed Yes | 37c | 54.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 42c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 45c | 51.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 50.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 45c | 45.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 29c | 45.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 56c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 28c | 43.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…9cc5backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…f7e4backed Yes | 38c | 39.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 44c | 38.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 37.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…5a62backed Yes | 41c | 36.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…2d64backed No | 61c | 36.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…d44cbacked No | 65c | 35.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 42c | 35.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 61c | 32.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 44c | 32.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…204bbacked Yes | 38c | 30.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 54c | 28.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 56c | 27.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 26.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 59c | 26.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…9221backed Yes | 38c | 26.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 76c | 25.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…81c0backed No | 63c | 25.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 59c | 25.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…db89backed No | 54c | 23.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.