Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25413b7a69d5a6582c6e44fc393fca7b7aa1311cdbf541d82d308f3671fd5929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 294.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 19c | 266.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 665 | 21.8%145 W · 520 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…e136backed Yes | 36c | 229.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 40c | 181.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 13c | 148.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 140.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 133$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 130.63$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 78c | 121.69$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…0a12backed No | 79c | 99.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 96.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 90.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 32c | 89.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 71c | 74.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 485 | 46%223 W · 262 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 28c | 73.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc5…c74abacked No | 72c | 69.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 69.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 73c | 59.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 22c | 55.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 26c | 55.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 63c | 46.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 30c | 45.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 43.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 39.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 37.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 24.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 24.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 75c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.