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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 27?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,549

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,320 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes23c241.08$57 inLost-$56.588,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes28c199.99$56 inLost-$567726%20 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes26c172.2$45 inLost-$45.113,42631.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L-38.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No72c150$108 inWon+$421,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No79c126.59$100 inWon+$26.992,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c106.25$76 inWon+$30.522,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No77c103.53$80 inWon+$23.951,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c100.77$74 inWon+$27.26,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c90.03$69 inWon+$20.925,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa387…3d3cbacked Yes21c87.56$18 inLost-$18.392842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes16c82.42$13 inLost-$13.1914332.2%46 W · 97 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes23c64.48$15 inLost-$1546736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No72c59.24$42 inWon+$16.7612,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No74c54.1$40 inWon+$14.0789259.8%533 W · 359 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c28…9844backed Yes25c53$13 inLost-$13.123759.5%22 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb530…3c03backed Yes25c49$12 inLost-$12.257913.9%11 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed No77c40$31 inWon+$9.213351.9%69 W · 64 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No79c38.06$30 inWon+$7.915,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No77c37$28 inWon+$8.5118947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6199…ece4backed No72c32$23 inWon+$8.866672.7%48 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No73c27.1$20 inWon+$7.324,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No80c22.26$18 inWon+$4.5616958.6%99 W · 70 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No72c21.05$15 inWon+$5.8555942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17b6…af55backed No73c20$15 inWon+$5.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-54.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No76c20$15 inWon+$4.91,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No72c15.86$11 inWon+$4.4412064.2%77 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.