Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x923b7c3605fc7fc43f40667d418f09900b0a8f26e4e2e6c1c627dcb003ac347d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 44c | 251.73$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.48 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 5c | 239.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 63c | 218.15$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 44c | 193.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 9c | 190.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +42.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 56c | 169.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 160.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 130.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 32c | 122.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 665 | 21.8%145 W · 520 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 100.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 97.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 96.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 95.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 95.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 75c | 94.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 163 | 70.6%115 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 46c | 84.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 21c | 70.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 70.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 64c | 68.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 58c | 67.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 46c | 62.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 24c | 60.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed No | 21c | 55.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 60c | 51.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 43c | 46.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 23c | 44.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 57c | 44.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 58c | 41.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 48c | 41.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 33.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 33.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 69c | 32.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 46c | 32.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6172…f63fbacked No | 59c | 29.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 29.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 27.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 54c | 27.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed No | 56c | 26.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 55c | 24.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 64c | 22.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 61c | 21.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd247…792abacked Yes | 76c | 20.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 70c | 19.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 74c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 68c | 17.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 480 | 39.8%191 W · 289 L | +31.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 77c | 16.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.