Other European Leagues · resolved market
AZ vs. NAC Breda: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x254b8827f884877bd70d31e73e53781fba1a0cf731d77264ca2d48a9144dce06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 4,405$2,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.2 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 64c | 2,748$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.89 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 38c | 2,637$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 57c | 1,746$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 38c | 1,602$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.34 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 1,241$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.6 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 15c | 550.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 76c | 492.8$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +12.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 9c | 477.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 32c | 451.35$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.92 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +19.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…df80backed Under | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…6f39backed Under | 65c | 411.18$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…34c0backed Under | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 64c | 308.86$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.67 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 45c | 301.8$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 55c | 301.8$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.81 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 123 | 19.5%24 W · 99 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 32c | 272.62$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.06 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Under | 13c | 166$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 62c | 160.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 121.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 33c | 103.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 28c | 103.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 44c | 89.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 84.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 36c | 67.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Under | 74c | 62.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 67c | 62.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…78efbacked Over | 46c | 51.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 199 | 48.7%97 W · 102 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 32c | 44.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 109 | 29.4%32 W · 77 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 47c | 38.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 70c | 34.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 31c | 33.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Over | 37c | 27.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 47c | 22.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 155 | 68.4%106 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AZ vs. NAC Breda: O/U 4.5this page
- AZ vs. NAC Breda: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AZ vs. NAC Breda: O/U 1.5Over won
- AZ vs. NAC Breda: O/U 2.5Over won
- AZ vs. NAC Breda: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)NAC Breda won
- Spread: AZ (-2.5)NAC Breda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.