Other European Leagues · resolved market
AZ vs. NAC Breda: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2defd8cf02d2c0e37fc4f208145aaf8ac30de8cf0e4fdd7237162b3800c056a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 3,378$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.81 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,242$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.25 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 46c | 962.26$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.64 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 876.25$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.3 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 36c | 846.87$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.66 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 71c | 559.08$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.18 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 46c | 353.06$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.59 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 26c | 312.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 38c | 262.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 45c | 255.58$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…3d32backed Over | 80c | 205.7$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Over | 55c | 205.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 72c | 199.33$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 194$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 40c | 127.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 74c | 102.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 80c | 97.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 184 | 50.5%93 W · 91 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…aa08backed Over | 54c | 92.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 63c | 84.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 65c | 71.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…3561backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 109 | 29.4%32 W · 77 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 48c | 21.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c2…2effbacked Over | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AZ vs. NAC Breda: O/U 3.5this page
- AZ vs. NAC Breda: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AZ vs. NAC Breda: O/U 1.5Over won
- AZ vs. NAC Breda: O/U 2.5Over won
- AZ vs. NAC Breda: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)NAC Breda won
- Spread: AZ (-2.5)NAC Breda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.