Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs Orbit Anonymo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2559817f7f7062d178839f3f4def3d052debd0a46ab08db056f1ae8e6ca92173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Forsakenof Forsaken, Orbit Anonymo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Orbit Anonymo | 52c | 1,922$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,675 | 59.3%993 W · 682 L | +96.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…67ffbacked Forsaken | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Forsaken | 15c | 878.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.73 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Forsaken | 27c | 413.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.18 | 595 | 48.2%287 W · 308 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Orbit Anonymo | 56c | 403.11$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.74 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Forsaken | 42c | 277.61$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.02 | 2,984 | 44.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L | -94.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Forsaken | 48c | 277$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 637 | 51.2%326 W · 311 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af0…fea7backed Forsaken | 44c | 219.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed Forsaken | 29c | 201.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.14 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Orbit Anonymo | 55c | 146.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 621 | 58.8%365 W · 256 L | +32.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Orbit Anonymo | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,399 | 44.9%628 W · 771 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Forsaken | 44c | 137.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 215 | 40%86 W · 129 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Forsaken | 41c | 115.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 1,056 | 50.4%532 W · 524 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Forsaken | 29c | 106.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 1,143 | 30.8%352 W · 791 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked Forsaken | 43c | 92.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Forsaken | 39c | 87.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 420 | 42.4%178 W · 242 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834f…f38ebacked Forsaken | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…0d64backed Forsaken | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Orbit Anonymo | 61c | 67.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 453 | 60.9%276 W · 177 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…50d4backed Forsaken | 18c | 65.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…2ff5backed Forsaken | 19c | 63.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e7…f2e5backed Forsaken | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…5267backed Forsaken | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 161 | 71.4%115 W · 46 L | +15.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a69…8caabacked Forsaken | 22c | 54.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Forsaken | 32c | 54.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 290 | 45.5%132 W · 158 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…6d8dbacked Forsaken | 22c | 53.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Forsaken | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2,521 | 47.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L | -34.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…35c7backed Forsaken | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Orbit Anonymo | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Orbit Anonymo | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,182 | 44.8%530 W · 652 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Forsaken | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,004 | 54.5%547 W · 457 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9f…0c25backed Forsaken | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 310 | 52.3%162 W · 148 L | +30.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Forsaken | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs Orbit Anonymo (+1.5)this page
- LoL: Orbit Anonymo vs Forsaken (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular SeasonForsaken won
- LoL: Orbit Anonymo vs Forsaken - Game 1 WinnerForsaken won
- LoL: Orbit Anonymo vs Forsaken - Game 2 WinnerForsaken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.