NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x256e65e280a4d00842864b89f6f4149bd813bb85393229a05a84cbc07a37c213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 22c | 639.19$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.62 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Under | 54c | 454.81$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.52 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 373.83$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Under | 54c | 367.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.33 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 46c | 299.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.99 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 273.98$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 36c | 260$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 45c | 255.13$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Under | 72c | 233.75$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 27c | 190.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…cf23backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 81.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 22c | 81.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 34c | 67.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Over | 17c | 61.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 53.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 50c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a50…09f4backed Over | 49c | 50.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 45c | 42.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…2985backed Under | 55c | 36.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Over | 48c | 35.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…c55fbacked Under | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 30.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 46c | 28.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Over | 53c | 23.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…1176backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Donovan Clingan: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Donovan Clingan: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
- Jerami Grant: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- Toumani Camara: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Toumani Camara: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Trail Blazers vs. BullsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.