Us Politics · resolved market
Will @realDonaldTrump be suspended by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25c44ce4eb2dede840ca5e0e6af6ee4eddcff45fb6ee73a730eb3e6c51e48f36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $355,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $380,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 3c | 28,579$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.06 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…3bbdbacked Yes | 1c | 25,361$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…c6bfbacked Yes | 1c | 14,087$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…9a12backed Yes | 0c | 13,175$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…a1fabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,445$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,289$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 6,778$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 2c | 6,527$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 7c | 6,183$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.1 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 0c | 5,595$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.69 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,053$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…ff45backed Yes | 1c | 3,390$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 0c | 2,668$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 2c | 2,600$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…36afbacked Yes | 3c | 2,264$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…9edcbacked Yes | 9c | 2,100$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,727$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 3c | 1,570$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4006…f9debacked Yes | 5c | 1,224$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,205$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…019cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,196$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa309…adfbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,171$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…9542backed Yes | 4c | 1,163$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…77d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,099$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…0e6cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,074$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…9019backed Yes | 1c | 1,060$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…1c15backed Yes | 2c | 1,055$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…51f2backed Yes | 3c | 1,001$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…5e65backed Yes | 1c | 857.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fa…5e06backed Yes | 2c | 750$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 4c | 719.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…f593backed Yes | 3c | 718.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 679$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 5c | 615.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 2c | 602.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…ed01backed Yes | 3c | 576.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…778ebacked Yes | 2c | 526.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01e…cf94backed Yes | 2c | 505.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…8c87backed Yes | 4c | 481.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…96e1backed Yes | 3c | 475.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…7cadbacked Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 3c | 381.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…b38bbacked Yes | 4c | 350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 9c | 224.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…17febacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.