Us Politics · resolved market
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25cb5896c796a0d45ff3629d63b2402540b411c186a1bf69d17d05937d559ec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 19,553$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,324$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fa…a105backed Yes | 3c | 1,862$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…55a0backed Yes | 3c | 1,777$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0c…7899backed Yes | 3c | 1,560$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de4…5dd5backed Yes | 4c | 1,373$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,336$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187e…3acfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,291$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Yes | 13c | 1,073$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…1c9dbacked Yes | 2c | 999.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e2…d5e3backed Yes | 4c | 981.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 750$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 738.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…be6cbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 665.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda7…85e6backed Yes | 3c | 632.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 7c | 610.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 554.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 529$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…2a33backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 4c | 441.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 3c | 419.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 3c | 407.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53da…995abacked Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…1ee2backed Yes | 6c | 343.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…88c6backed Yes | 4c | 337.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…f324backed Yes | 5c | 315.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 11c | 308$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…e356backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90d0…5097backed Yes | 14c | 292.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 16c | 290.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…60f0backed Yes | 11c | 280$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8685…f32ebacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…7ef8backed Yes | 5c | 222.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…ea6fbacked Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…56b6backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…7d2ebacked Yes | 6c | 197.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…41eebacked Yes | 13c | 194.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 190$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482d…750dbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…489dbacked Yes | 12c | 131.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9814…f4b1backed Yes | 20c | 102.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…bd1fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…1db9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…87cbbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…d03ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0de…52eabacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.