Mls · resolved market
Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25de5444cde0a34d2013b004d038cb7b4cd599ca7d2502949ce036c1c34a2232
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 19c | 2,766$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.14 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 76c | 2,407$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.22 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 813.52$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.06 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 29c | 665.52$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 61c | 325$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…3b2bbacked Over | 61c | 247.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 53c | 162.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 39c | 158.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 39c | 150.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 40c | 150.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 60c | 86.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 58c | 86.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 40c | 81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 68.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 39c | 67.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…147abacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd60…c454backed Over | 61c | 49.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…2b48backed Over | 61c | 41.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Over | 42c | 28.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 40c | 27.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 56c | 23.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…97cebacked Over | 61c | 18.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…fac6backed Over | 61c | 18.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5this page
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: CF Montréal O/U 2.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: Nashville SC O/U 0.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: Nashville SC O/U 1.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 0.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.