Mls · resolved market
Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a1ffc4515d67a6406723185edc46e5f27fad4148a359f80c3d9372b74cf98ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CF Montréalof Nashville SC, CF Montréal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed CF Montréal | 64c | 7,853$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,853.1 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.35per pick | 57cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Nashville SC | 30c | 5,886$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.67 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Nashville SC | 39c | 5,616$2,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,177.85 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed CF Montréal | 61c | 4,923$2,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.61 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed CF Montréal | 61c | 4,772$2,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.66 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CF Montréal | 78c | 2,598$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.45 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Nashville SC | 37c | 2,500$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.41 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Nashville SC | 38c | 2,361$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.25 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Nashville SC | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nashville SC | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nashville SC | 30c | 857.18$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.08 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…121cbacked Nashville SC | 40c | 525$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CF Montréal | 60c | 363.8$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.52 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked CF Montréal | 63c | 259.43$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Nashville SC | 37c | 259.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…06a2backed Nashville SC | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed CF Montréal | 61c | 221.72$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…3b2bbacked CF Montréal | 60c | 199.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed CF Montréal | 74c | 162.02$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CF Montréal | 61c | 159.67$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Nashville SC | 36c | 141.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed CF Montréal | 80c | 129$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Nashville SC | 37c | 121$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Nashville SC | 37c | 106$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nashville SC | 29c | 95.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nashville SC | 25c | 85.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed CF Montréal | 61c | 84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…abc9backed CF Montréal | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Nashville SC | 40c | 75.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Nashville SC | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked CF Montréal | 58c | 67.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Nashville SC | 42c | 67.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Nashville SC | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Nashville SC | 20c | 61.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed CF Montréal | 64c | 59.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd60…c454backed CF Montréal | 60c | 50.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Nashville SC | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed Nashville SC | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked CF Montréal | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Nashville SC | 39c | 42.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Nashville SC | 40c | 41.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked CF Montréal | 62c | 40.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Nashville SC | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…2b48backed CF Montréal | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Nashville SC | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nashville SC | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Nashville SC | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed CF Montréal | 61c | 25.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed CF Montréal | 61c | 25.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed CF Montréal | 58c | 22.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…a901backed CF Montréal | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked CF Montréal | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)this page
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: CF Montréal O/U 2.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: Nashville SC O/U 0.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: Nashville SC O/U 1.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 0.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.