World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 31°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x261e773e8644db0ed5d6c5743fac4e802924ea4b9fc7ce3e5db75141c746af2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 549.36$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.22 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…0771backed Yes | 2c | 544.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…0793backed Yes | 56c | 232.77$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 134.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 51c | 130.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 65c | 112.16$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 74c | 100.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 95.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 47c | 78.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 74.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 57c | 74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 57c | 63.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 63.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 52.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 41.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 57c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 48c | 34.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 53c | 31.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 47c | 29.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 42c | 24.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 48c | 23.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 69c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 31°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 32°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 34°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.