World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c92b230a683633f5530b2fe8b6d0eebfb7631b8f847e3d89abfe97dc3d25813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 77c | 869.03$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.01 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 225.83$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.24 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 42c | 190.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…d270backed No | 39c | 139.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 26c | 124$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d5…f8fdbacked Yes | 27c | 115.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 17c | 98.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 39c | 95.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…86c9backed No | 25c | 78.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 77.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 63.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 26c | 55.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 51.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 22c | 49.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 44.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 77cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 79c | 25.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 79c | 22.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 75c | 17.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 69c | 16.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 73c | 15.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…64e7backed No | 77c | 14.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 31°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 32°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 34°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.