Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x269cc0be7293120211fd0b0f15db8728bb58f961a3a3b44bd12dce361ef68e62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 270.12$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 49c | 150.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 140$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 135.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 118.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 102.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 47c | 78.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 50c | 78.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 49c | 70.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 58c | 65.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 62.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 68c | 57.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 54.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e1…3f64backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 41c | 43.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 33c | 43.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 69c | 36.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 55c | 34.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 54c | 27.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3075…5743backed No | 54c | 27.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 50c | 22.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 62c | 20.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 49c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…3835backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 59c | 18.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.