Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c0e1d77e882a08e290bc59dfc17cedc34a6eb1e1556d51ae75c33e93a155a45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 431.4$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 343.25$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 278.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 244.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 43c | 223.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 23c | 167.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 9c | 145.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 44c | 122$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 77c | 114.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 79c | 102.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…2b8ebacked No | 44c | 89.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 34c | 89.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcda…c199backed Yes | 28c | 87.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 65c | 82.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 33c | 82.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 35c | 78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 28c | 77.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 73.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 69.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 50c | 59.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 53c | 56.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 54.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…8584backed Yes | 30c | 52.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 36c | 52.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…4a71backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…7444backed Yes | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 25c | 41.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 64c | 37.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 47c | 36.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 60c | 33.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 62c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 53c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 61c | 30.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 61c | 29.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 68c | 27.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 79c | 20.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 19.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 67c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 79c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed No | 64c | 15.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 80c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdafa…8a4abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.