Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26b0e8b95d8dfbab031c8f591733c632aa98b4319bae5b8b5fe7a0ba716e67ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,088 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5004…566cbacked Yes | 29c | 2,631$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf5…d38bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,565$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…aa09backed No | 71c | 1,400$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…5914backed No | 71c | 1,325$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82f…499abacked No | 71c | 1,240$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b3…edb9backed No | 71c | 1,231$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 2c | 1,102$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 570.56$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 23c | 379.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 278.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 265$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 16c | 201.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…6120backed Yes | 31c | 200.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 17c | 172.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 22c | 170.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 73c | 154.71$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 150.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 28c | 140.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 35c | 136$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 132.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 125.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 114.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 22c | 110.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 107.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 103.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 73c | 103.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 99.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 99.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 95.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 93.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 27c | 91.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…fbafbacked Yes | 21c | 88.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…deb9backed Yes | 18c | 81.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 79.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 70c | 75.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 18c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes | 14c | 74.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 66.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 64.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 61.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 77c | 54.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 24c | 44.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 72c | 43.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 35.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 70c | 27.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 24.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 67c | 24.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 23.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked No | 66c | 21.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 62c | 21.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 18.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 79c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 16.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 70c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…db89backed No | 71c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…a2d4backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.