Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e6d5f22cc90b411281f59ed860056bca7adfced5f6d302d05536c8c4669729b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,783 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 342.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 50c | 265$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.91 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 214.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 50c | 212.46$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 56c | 210.02$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 33c | 205$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…6120backed Yes | 62c | 200.14$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 36c | 199.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 48c | 197.4$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed Yes | 61c | 192.29$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 73c | 190.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 31c | 168.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 59c | 166.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 33c | 165.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 62c | 160.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 159.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 15c | 158.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 153.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 45c | 151.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 25c | 145.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 19c | 144$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed Yes | 69c | 142.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 46c | 135.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 52c | 131.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 130.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 58c | 128.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 25c | 128.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 24c | 126.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 70c | 116.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 115.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 28c | 114.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 56c | 113.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 108.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 41c | 103.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 98.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 52c | 90.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed No | 49c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 26c | 83.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed No | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 68.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 67.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 58c | 66.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 66c | 51.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 46.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…6e1abacked No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff7…4c04backed No | 58c | 44.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 59c | 42.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…c66dbacked No | 51c | 38.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 62c | 36.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…ee12backed Yes | 46c | 34.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 44c | 34.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed Yes | 61c | 33.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 53c | 30.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 58c | 29.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…ee17backed No | 53c | 29.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 43c | 28.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…503fbacked No | 50c | 27.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6883…4406backed Yes | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed Yes | 63c | 24.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…ec5dbacked No | 43c | 23.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 62c | 23.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…c22ebacked Yes | 69c | 23.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 59c | 22.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b7…8cedbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 76c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 57c | 19.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked Yes | 62c | 18.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfea9…2a8fbacked Yes | 64c | 17.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…0ba3backed Yes | 80c | 14.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.