Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26c04a7ade180db38d449e0650a237a58aab96f07557d7f718a9278cfddd37a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 607.42$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 31c | 548.95$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.59 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 505.89$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 50c | 272.84$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.83 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 195.9$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 153.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 147.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 127.47$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 124.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 21c | 119.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…2bb6backed Yes | 21c | 119.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 25c | 118.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 97.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 29c | 92.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 87.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 82.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 79c | 66.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 77c | 55.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 38c | 53.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 43c | 51.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 22c | 48.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 25c | 47.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 26c | 46.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 42c | 46.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…9638backed Yes | 28c | 45.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 28c | 45.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 45.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 26c | 44.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 55c | 37.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 33.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed Yes | 76c | 32.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 36c | 29.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 19.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 19.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 72c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.