Tennis · resolved market
ATP Umag – Ruiz vs. Carabelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26fdec63eb78e801da3d27223843e619f490f76e58733490ca7acdfb2e992646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carabelliof Ruiz, Carabelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Ruiz | 53c | 3,122$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.3 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Carabelli | 47c | 1,400$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.48 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Ruiz | 32c | 1,312$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Carabelli | 46c | 1,211$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.15 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c24…fbc9backed Carabelli | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…9151backed Carabelli | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 46cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Carabelli | 49c | 822.07$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…c54fbacked Ruiz | 54c | 640$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c87…64f8backed Ruiz | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Carabelli | 45c | 500$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.92 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Ruiz | 25c | 495.72$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ruiz | 50c | 460.82$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.82 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Carabelli | 75c | 413$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.43 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Carabelli | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.2 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…615abacked Ruiz | 54c | 360$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Ruiz | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Ruiz | 54c | 330.48$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.17 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…0008backed Ruiz | 55c | 285$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Carabelli | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Carabelli | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Ruiz | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Carabelli | 65c | 136.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Carabelli | 47c | 128.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49b…83a7backed Ruiz | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Carabelli | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Carabelli | 47c | 71.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ruiz | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Carabelli | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…b3bebacked Carabelli | 47c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Carabelli | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x921b…0413backed Ruiz | 54c | 19.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.