Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x271c5a38295f5a478cc0a3bc82beb18d57fa165185d2c9535c96d2f5d457ddb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 562.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 384.9$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 238$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 175$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 165.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 158.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 136.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…114bbacked Yes | 45c | 125.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 123.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 17c | 122.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 55c | 118.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 114.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 53c | 112.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 104.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 97.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 22c | 96.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 92.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 34c | 89.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 47c | 85.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 82.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 76.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 70.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 57c | 60.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked Yes | 21c | 58.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 55c | 52.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 43c | 52.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 51.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 50.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 49.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 24c | 46.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 44c | 40.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 45c | 40.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa873…6b47backed Yes | 59c | 34.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 32.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed No | 59c | 30.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 42c | 30.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 29.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 41c | 29.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 28.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 78c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 74c | 24.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b94…33d6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 69c | 19.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 14.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 67°F or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.