Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5cb2ec8205681fd62d3c2baf5f78ac32f1e1e9a0d0d1b620ed3cbc1a5f3a21e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 14c | 797.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.44 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 70c | 536.01$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.42 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 410.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 284.53$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.73 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 265.14$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 188.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 54c | 188$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 40c | 181$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 17c | 178.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 57c | 176.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.01 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 170.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 63c | 166.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 158.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 29c | 152.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 23c | 151.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 149.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 139.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 13c | 102$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 101.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 36c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked No | 37c | 96.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes | 18c | 89.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 83.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 32c | 80.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 70.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb96e…3ddfbacked No | 51c | 70.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 59.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 52.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 39c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 70c | 51.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b94…33d6backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 49.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 39c | 46.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 31c | 43.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 34c | 42.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 30c | 39.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 74c | 39.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 74c | 39.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 69c | 36.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 56c | 33.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 62c | 32.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 54c | 29.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…c8b9backed Yes | 62c | 27.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 78c | 25.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 67°F or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.