Dota2 · resolved market
Aurora vs Team Liquid: Draw (1-1)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x273a79205ba0639b483ac1c2f3660d10190769116d09d1ed0e59ae3a888f826a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2d0…7bbfbacked No | 63c | 3,381$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.06 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 37c | 2,149$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.63 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Yes | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 41c | 1,254$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.27 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 905.53$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.81 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1,270 | 45.1%573 W · 697 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 59c | 438$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.42 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b39…1f68backed No | 41c | 195.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…c02bbacked Yes | 59c | 195.85$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 99.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Yes | 42c | 90.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 37c | 87.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 412 | 46.8%193 W · 219 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed No | 41c | 77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 59c | 72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 42c | 42.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…6aa1backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…3288backed No | 58c | 28.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 25.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 19.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aurora vs Team Liquid: Draw (1-1)?this page
- Aurora to win 2-0?No won
- Team Liquid to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.