Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27504a237d69b1fee4962295ecd7f4bc77a9284ce65eae87987102cbdd2ab57d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 78c | 376$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 336.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 212.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 166.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 17c | 125.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed Yes | 20c | 100.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 49c | 91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…8fa3backed Yes | 17c | 86.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 83.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 79.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 22c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…32c1backed No | 78c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 21c | 67.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Yes | 18c | 66.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 22c | 59.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 36c | 55.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 51.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 80c | 47.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 25.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 80c | 23.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 80c | 13.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.