Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9a6a64411c701772553eb0f90aa09608f7ea47ad08a19bacfa94e393abe8e91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 397.14$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 246.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 163.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 159.37$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 53c | 139.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 132.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 70c | 128.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 47c | 124.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 80.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 74.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 69c | 72.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 56c | 70.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 67.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 27c | 63.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 61.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 56.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 57c | 43.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 37c | 43.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 41.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 59c | 39.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 51c | 39.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 53c | 36.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 69c | 36.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 35.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 32.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 35c | 32.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 62c | 32.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 31.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed Yes | 35c | 31.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 65c | 31.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 69c | 28.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 59c | 27.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 73c | 27.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 25.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 56c | 25.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 24.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 45c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 61c | 19.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 57c | 18.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.