South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x277e282171d07a320d8c731d75f6fa8cc92178d62d2f6df7274e00d5680ddd1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 65c | 5,989$3,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092.59 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 35c | 4,733$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.55 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 35c | 2,138$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.37 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 962.68$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.35 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 750.16$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.85 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 65c | 350$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 65c | 286.38$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 36c | 253.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 35c | 249.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 65c | 196.21$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 168.06$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 65c | 150.94$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 76c | 145.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 65c | 119.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked No | 66c | 111.32$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…9ab6backed Yes | 14c | 85.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 65c | 83.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 68.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 50.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 35c | 40.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked No | 77c | 33.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…8d7ebacked No | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 65c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 15.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed No | 74c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.