Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2783f8cd2125f7776862f4cae39be1f551c6e3e3921873aa621820f4c8fe0768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 1,097$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 554.71$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 306.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 235$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 201.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 60c | 149.02$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 146$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 45c | 141.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 46c | 128.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 48c | 84.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 74.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 58c | 65.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 61.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 43c | 60.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 52c | 55.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 46c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 58c | 51.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 51.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 24c | 49.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 47c | 46.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 44c | 40.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 46c | 37.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 33.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 80c | 31.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 30.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9707…6fbdbacked Yes | 47c | 25.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed No | 50c | 23.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 22.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…9383backed No | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b11…a02dbacked Yes | 75c | 18.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.