Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x278e3dbe629fdeb8790b31a4b0f3f0f37629f44b5d269045bfcf1aedf10f5679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 14,239$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 11c | 2,904$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.88 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…3eddbacked Yes | 17c | 1,976$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 16c | 656.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…c775backed Yes | 12c | 491.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 16c | 206.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 15c | 204.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 16c | 203.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 16c | 191.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 16c | 147.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 16c | 137.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 15c | 108.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 12c | 104.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Yes | 19c | 102.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…3f90backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…b9debacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-09?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.