Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb03196e57bcfa1ca593971334977d72723e6171c92fbef2e432a36c5bb4c8931
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes | 4c | 14,999$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.97 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 0c | 11,633$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 5c | 7,800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.34 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 5c | 5,665$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.45 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 2c | 5,510$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.51 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 9c | 2,113$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.89 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…7001backed Yes | 10c | 2,049$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce35…503dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,538$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 11c | 1,387$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.68 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 9c | 1,276$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 3c | 1,276$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0c…ba73backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -83%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +42%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Yes | 10c | 950$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 10c | 937.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 3c | 498.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 9c | 396.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 10c | 269.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 10c | 254.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 9c | 246.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 9c | 230.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 10c | 183.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 9c | 180.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 11c | 141.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864d…9c2ebacked Yes | 10c | 112.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…2303backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd0…30b4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.