South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-12-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27dbb2a1fbcc471737a70f2fdda2a010e6cc082f3cedea6a552f29f0448cb0dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 52c | 25,000$13,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,000 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 48c | 14,569$6,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,993.24 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 13c | 3,097$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.63 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,800$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 47c | 1,004$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.37 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 10c | 990.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Yes | 53c | 936.06$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 56c | 882.26$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.07 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 14c | 804$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 48c | 747.48$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.97 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 48c | 399.96$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.98 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 56c | 235.17$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…08adbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 13c | 187.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…8fafbacked No | 12c | 123.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 28c | 113.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…16e3backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Yes | 51c | 88.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed No | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…44dfbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…e73fbacked Yes | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 48c | 40.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad9…54a5backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x587f…1d4abacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-12-03?this page
- Will EC Vitória win on 2025-12-03?No won
- Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Vitória end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.