NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27e77a42b105121bfcc414f120ce4f9d72ccaae86d5ddae8dd407a8671527d9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,596 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 57c | 3,644$2,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.52 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 44c | 3,261$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 2,038$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.06 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 530$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.18 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 40c | 498.55$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.42 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 58c | 244.41$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 58c | 244$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 58c | 224.14$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.14 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Under | 10c | 213.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 60c | 195.33$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 41c | 189$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 59c | 130.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642e…063bbacked Under | 40c | 103.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 58c | 101$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 58c | 99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 59c | 83.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…d7c4backed Over | 60c | 70.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Jets vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Jets vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Jets vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.