NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f0bf28e6073d6c757333d464eaed086d53093828d3af20c4d103d9847ef7e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,940 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 27c | 1,146$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.41 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 1,121$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.44 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Under | 73c | 1,096$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…f17ebacked Under | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 690.22$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.98 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Under | 57c | 656$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.67 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 62c | 404.35$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 60c | 260.53$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 28c | 202.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 41c | 164.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 40c | 150.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 42c | 52.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 44c | 45.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 43.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…60f7backed Under | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…c61abacked Under | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Under | 44c | 32.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Over | 56c | 28.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 47c | 25.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 77c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d40…0af8backed Under | 72c | 19.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 73c | 15.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Under | 72c | 15.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5this page
- Jets vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Jets vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Jets vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.