NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3944cc0b0d5672a14042a8fbc0220ef4307d8f8b2f95261132ae89b306bec88f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Penguins, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,485 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Jets | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.99 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Penguins | 37c | 2,459$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Penguins | 37c | 1,475$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.17 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607d…53a1backed Jets | 65c | 1,188$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.96 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Penguins | 37c | 1,180$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.34 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Penguins | 35c | 495.44$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.41 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jets | 63c | 449.1$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.17 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Penguins | 35c | 375.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Penguins | 35c | 339.15$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Penguins | 33c | 324.7$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Penguins | 37c | 286.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 249 | 52.2%130 W · 119 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…86d2backed Penguins | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Penguins | 37c | 267$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Jets | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Penguins | 12c | 141.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Penguins | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Jets | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Penguins | 25c | 117.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Jets | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Jets | 65c | 104.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Jets | 65c | 100.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Jets | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Penguins | 36c | 68.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Jets | 48c | 61.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Jets | 65c | 60.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Penguins | 36c | 53.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…0901backed Jets | 65c | 43.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Penguins | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 36c | 37.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Penguins | 53c | 34.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Jets | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Jets | 64c | 32.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Penguins | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Jets | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Penguins | 39c | 28.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Jets | 52c | 26.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Jets | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Penguins | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3321…c387backed Jets | 64c | 16.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0de…84b1backed Jets | 65c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…3a0cbacked Jets | 65c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…ea7abacked Penguins | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 233 | 48.5%113 W · 120 L | +16.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Jets vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Jets vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Jets vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Jets vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.