Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27fb8bddc1767e4cb343bc758bac86e2d420eeb3d73f3eaa725eff60a964c3cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 59c | 1,269$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.52 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 873.06$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 36c | 604.93$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.93 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 430.69$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.2 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes | 60c | 418.22$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.89 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 341.25$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 4c | 258.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 80c | 223.64$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 66c | 220.92$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 187.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 15c | 180.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.16 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 167.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 163$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 44c | 159.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 147$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 145$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 45c | 109.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 107.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 52c | 105.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 101.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 42c | 96.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 90.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 87.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…0339backed No | 55c | 84.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 79.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 19c | 78.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 54c | 74.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 27c | 63.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 48c | 59.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 62c | 58.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 55.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…7455backed Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 52c | 49.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 60c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d4…f843backed Yes | 58c | 42.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 42.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 41.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 38.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 41c | 37.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 58c | 34.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 39c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 38c | 31.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…fab9backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 62c | 29.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 41c | 29.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 36c | 29.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 26.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 23.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 51c | 23.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 67c | 22.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.