UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2816f5dbe4c2943b3248711997e56864ab7cae4c45a7fc9a21afc31f3be1cff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 56c | 316.95$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.55 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 46c | 236.75$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Yes | 45c | 223.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…7508backed Yes | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 56c | 126.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…fab2backed Yes | 51c | 106.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…ec18backed Yes | 48c | 93.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +71%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed No | 53c | 92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 52c | 63.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…28bebacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde3e…fc74backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe232…6ceabacked Yes | 53c | 37.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9b…8efcbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x835a…67e3backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75a…c74ebacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Yes | 43c | 31.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…4d1ebacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +59%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…81dbbacked No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa711…61cbbacked Yes | 43c | 24.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)Sean O'Malley won
- Will Aiemann Zahabi win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.