Tennis · resolved market
Hangzhou Open: Arthur Cazaux vs Matteo Arnaldi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2834a60f9c73b9f68f7739897b7093a1ed62b34b3f225c6de81fe6e932e9f16a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cazauxof Cazaux, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cazaux | 57c | 2,558$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.77 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Arnaldi | 47c | 2,110$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.5 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arnaldi | 47c | 1,955$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.14 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Cazaux | 50c | 1,045$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.22 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Cazaux | 61c | 875.94$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.4 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Cazaux | 51c | 826.99$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.63 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Cazaux | 54c | 729.37$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.77 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cazaux | 51c | 491.3$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.6 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Cazaux | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Cazaux | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cazaux | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Arnaldi | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Arnaldi | 54c | 186.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 650 | 40%260 W · 390 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed Arnaldi | 49c | 153.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Arnaldi | 44c | 151.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Arnaldi | 50c | 120.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Arnaldi | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Arnaldi | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Arnaldi | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Cazaux | 62c | 81.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Arnaldi | 51c | 69.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Cazaux | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Cazaux | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Arnaldi | 51c | 51.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cazaux | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…4172backed Arnaldi | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…c192backed Cazaux | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Cazaux | 51c | 38.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.