Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x284e545dd7e58a1b3342df30b15dfbcb06a24f127bec4d57b33b916d16d0734e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, FURIA Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed FURIA Esports | 60c | 6,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked 100 Thieves | 40c | 3,712$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.21 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…ce68backed FURIA Esports | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked 100 Thieves | 52c | 941.67$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked 100 Thieves | 40c | 773$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.8 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 410$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.5 | 563 | 57.9%326 W · 237 L | +36.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 100 Thieves | 50c | 400$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.08 | 533 | 55.3%295 W · 238 L | +24.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked FURIA Esports | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…755fbacked 100 Thieves | 40c | 178$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked 100 Thieves | 39c | 108.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…1ad3backed 100 Thieves | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed 100 Thieves | 40c | 91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0181…9b5fbacked FURIA Esports | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed 100 Thieves | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports - Map 2 Winner100 Thieves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.