Tennis · resolved market
Sao Paulo: Lautaro Midon vs Alvaro Guillen Meza
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x285c9307b0ef8c76bfbb686b1634c3ea43bfab34e7a855dadf64a4f4b038aca9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alvaro Guillen Mezaof Lautaro Midon, Alvaro Guillen Meza
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,159 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Lautaro Midon | 17c | 5,285$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.48 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lautaro Midon | 22c | 2,038$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.13 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Lautaro Midon | 41c | 1,527$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.15 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…6daabacked Lautaro Midon | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Lautaro Midon | 19c | 1,214$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.97 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…0606backed Lautaro Midon | 21c | 1,161$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lautaro Midon | 24c | 1,132$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.21 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48d…5182backed Lautaro Midon | 33c | 1,071$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 245 | 58.8%144 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Lautaro Midon | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 77c | 963.66$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.77 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 74c | 867.79$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.29 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 64c | 825.23$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.65 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 59c | 724.83$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.18 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lautaro Midon | 19c | 573.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 76c | 328.32$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 72c | 309.83$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Lautaro Midon | 19c | 306.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Lautaro Midon | 21c | 305.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lautaro Midon | 23c | 224.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 351 | 64.1%225 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2273…7e01backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 79c | 189.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Lautaro Midon | 9c | 169$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -11.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Lautaro Midon | 29c | 144.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 725 | 42.6%309 W · 416 L | -20.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Lautaro Midon | 16c | 125.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Lautaro Midon | 18c | 124.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lautaro Midon | 23c | 122.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Lautaro Midon | 35c | 115.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Lautaro Midon | 25c | 109.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 594 | 40.2%239 W · 355 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 60c | 104.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 64c | 103.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 79c | 98.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Lautaro Midon | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 55c | 95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 326 | 49.1%160 W · 166 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62bd…3dfbbacked Lautaro Midon | 27c | 75.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 75c | 75.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 78c | 68.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 349 | 50.4%176 W · 173 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 73c | 64.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 76c | 61.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 66c | 61.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3900…145ebacked Lautaro Midon | 23c | 58.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…c23abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 76c | 55.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 72c | 52.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 652 | 64.1%418 W · 234 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f65…c1d0backed Lautaro Midon | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 303 | 49.8%151 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 78c | 51.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…bd37backed Lautaro Midon | 32c | 47.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 57c | 45.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…4f54backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 79c | 45.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 263 | 49.4%130 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Lautaro Midon | 40c | 44.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…94d1backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 71c | 35.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Lautaro Midon | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…e08fbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 75c | 29.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 77c | 29.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Lautaro Midon | 41c | 25.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 59c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 69c | 23.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…e226backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 78c | 22.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 75c | 20.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 75c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…0b8abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079c…a211backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 79c | 16.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 68c | 14.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sao Paulo: Lautaro Midon vs Alvaro Guillen Mezathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Midon vs MezaMeza won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.