Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x285da644b75326914c08028b77d5caf5f569f50843cc95009ae63b87f137788f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 22c | 25,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 78c | 24,547$19,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400.43 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 762$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.26 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 74c | 460.02$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 24c | 399$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 372.68$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 348.18$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 25c | 336$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 22c | 222$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 26c | 190$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 23c | 167.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 138$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 126.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 24c | 88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…3914backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 24c | 61.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 18c | 61.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e7…4dc9backed Yes | 29c | 51.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked Yes | 27c | 41.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 72c | 35.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c0…a6e5backed Yes | 28c | 35.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 74c | 32.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…fe26backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.