Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdee0c6f34fd9839e8f87eb8f9a3d7ddc093636ad1e1925a69ed61f67a443721b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 49c | 40,000$19,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,585.51 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 47c | 25,126$11,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,806.57 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 51c | 19,330$9,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,381.57 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Yes | 53c | 13,740$7,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,457.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 53c | 13,527$7,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,348.4 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 51c | 8,923$4,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,344.39 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Yes | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Yes | 51c | 4,609$2,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,258.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 47c | 3,500$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e3…21d5backed Yes | 53c | 2,619$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 51c | 2,418$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.98 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 48c | 2,194$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.96 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Yes | 54c | 1,864$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 51c | 1,517$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.92 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes | 54c | 1,452$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.76 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…8771backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 47c | 894$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.18 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 52c | 810$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.57 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked No | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 53c | 622.24$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.45 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 51c | 492.28$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 49c | 407.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 52c | 383.93$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked No | 48c | 372.46$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 348.18$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Yes | 51c | 346.6$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.89 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 50c | 330$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.28 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 78c | 329.16$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 50c | 298$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.66 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 48c | 250.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 51c | 246$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.54 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 74c | 245.76$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked No | 52c | 242.11$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 9c | 211.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee7…f032backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 10c | 206.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9920…8f8ebacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 52c | 190.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 51c | 181.93$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes | 57c | 161$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 53c | 155.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa041…04d2backed Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…c4d4backed Yes | 53c | 142.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 49c | 136.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed No | 47c | 124.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…6cb1backed Yes | 53c | 107$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 50c | 100.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b16…a327backed Yes | 53c | 77.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked Yes | 52c | 76.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…eb08backed Yes | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 54c | 69.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897b…151ebacked Yes | 52c | 66.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 52c | 56.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 53c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5090…52d3backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…31a3backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…96bebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…da3bbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 52c | 37.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6adb…fac7backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 56c | 27.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 51c | 26.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…28cbbacked Yes | 52c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 47c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-09-20?No won
- Will Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.