Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2861215fe511c90896e836e2fbc7c42fbf1774285b3876cae97c911932d62fd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…6f31backed Yes | 64c | 313.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 14c | 279.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 217.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 17c | 209.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 174$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 27c | 159.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 23c | 136.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 71c | 112.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 112$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 39c | 103.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 42c | 100.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 33c | 88.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 82.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 57c | 78.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8f…4d8abacked Yes | 28c | 71.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 76c | 69.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 67.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 58c | 62.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 64c | 61.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 55.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 55.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 41c | 49.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 40c | 45.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 62c | 40.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 66c | 40.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 34c | 34.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 62c | 32.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 32.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 61c | 31.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…ee31backed Yes | 64c | 31.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 70c | 29.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…f34cbacked No | 67c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 24.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 79c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 67c | 20.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 73c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed No | 64c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked No | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 79c | 17.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed No | 75c | 15.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.