Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe39a73c07ddd89aa185c56c09f2662993a6735e03a3dc0822cf62143b4916de6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 2c | 499.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…6f31backed Yes | 34c | 291.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 80c | 252.37$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 22c | 220.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 18c | 207.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 7c | 179.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 21c | 147.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 134.68$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 11c | 130.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 119.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 19c | 92.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 92.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 19c | 88.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 85.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 46c | 81.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 14c | 79.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 17c | 69.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 74c | 42.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…ee31backed Yes | 52c | 38.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 80c | 35.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 77c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 72c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 18.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.