Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Shintaro Imai vs Kasidit Samrej
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x287054ac23af6efb79a335ba160249462b4fb94f4b3a1d3c80ef13eff0bedcf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kasidit Samrejof Shintaro Imai, Kasidit Samrej
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Shintaro Imai | 45c | 11,336$5,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,077.11 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Kasidit Samrej | 55c | 2,806$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.08 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Kasidit Samrej | 53c | 2,371$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.42 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Kasidit Samrej | 59c | 1,947$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.27 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Kasidit Samrej | 53c | 1,628$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.08 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Kasidit Samrej | 55c | 1,483$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.62 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Kasidit Samrej | 37c | 983.56$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.74 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Kasidit Samrej | 54c | 827.52$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.66 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kasidit Samrej | 44c | 415.39$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.47 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Shintaro Imai | 67c | 337$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.29 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Shintaro Imai | 77c | 144.28$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…263dbacked Shintaro Imai | 50c | 142.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Kasidit Samrej | 57c | 138.73$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Shintaro Imai | 45c | 133.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Shintaro Imai | 77c | 129$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Shintaro Imai | 72c | 114.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Shintaro Imai | 25c | 97.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Shintaro Imai | 75c | 96.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Shintaro Imai | 42c | 85.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Shintaro Imai | 38c | 75.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Shintaro Imai | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Shintaro Imai | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Shintaro Imai | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Shintaro Imai | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…339fbacked Kasidit Samrej | 39c | 61.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kasidit Samrej | 60c | 59.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Kasidit Samrej | 33c | 54.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 499 | 43.5%217 W · 282 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Shintaro Imai | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…b898backed Kasidit Samrej | 58c | 49.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Kasidit Samrej | 62c | 48.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Kasidit Samrej | 79c | 40.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Shintaro Imai | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Shintaro Imai | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Shintaro Imai | 47c | 35.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kasidit Samrej | 37c | 33.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Shintaro Imai | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3584backed Kasidit Samrej | 65c | 29.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -40.4wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Kasidit Samrej | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Kasidit Samrej | 56c | 26.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 176 | 62.5%110 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Shintaro Imai | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Shintaro Imai | 51c | 23.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.