Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28866333f28959cb36269eff0d684c4997c883cdbd54047963e3f0c14200d1a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 36c | 2,147$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.72 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…9b78backed No | 79c | 999.99$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 619.03$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.61 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Yes | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked No | 49c | 591.84$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 50c | 555$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 51c | 543.14$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.14 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked No | 37c | 486.09$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.85 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 51c | 444.33$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.1 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b9…3d3bbacked Yes | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 58c | 305.08$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.65 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 63c | 237.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes | 53c | 187$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 37c | 186.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4538…7d5cbacked Yes | 61c | 154.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…4b13backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 48c | 118.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 45c | 113.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 60c | 109.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 48c | 100.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…2cc6backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…1dafbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…d5a3backed No | 45c | 97.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed No | 17c | 97.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 52c | 96.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0d…4f81backed Yes | 53c | 94.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 20c | 93.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 46c | 88.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Yes | 28c | 71.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 36c | 68.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…2400backed Yes | 54c | 58.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 61c | 52.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 58c | 51.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919f…bfbebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 78cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Yes | 39c | 49.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 39c | 49.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…5f27backed Yes | 67c | 40.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…daa0backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 43c | 35.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 52c | 32.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 33c | 30.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked No | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 41c | 27.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked Yes | 57c | 25.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…126cbacked Yes | 51c | 23.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 50c | 20.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…d7a8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…af49backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-10?this page
- Will Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-05-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.