Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-05-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73458dc591cb900207e0139751747f97371425f4a2f803f8a256f8c2ba789552
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 1,391$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.12 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…994abacked No | 74c | 1,350$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes | 48c | 521.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 75c | 481.51$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 47c | 410.66$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.01 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 373$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 53c | 329.64$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.06 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 26c | 320.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 54c | 240$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 51c | 157.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 148.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Yes | 27c | 141.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 53c | 140.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 49c | 117.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 52c | 106.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 95.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 73c | 80.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 67.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 16c | 67.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 22c | 63.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 53c | 50.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 47c | 47.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 50c | 45.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 55c | 43.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 52c | 40.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Yes | 46c | 39.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 33c | 35.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…d03fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Yes | 51c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 72c | 26.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 58c | 24.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 63c | 18.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…a8a1backed No | 75c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-05-10?this page
- Will Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?No won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.